Tipping Point: Wolf Regulation

Switzerland is pursuing a risky concept in its management of wolves, known as baseline regulation.

The aim is to preventively shoot 66% of the pups of a given year class in order to reduce conflicts with agriculture and to supposedly maintain acceptance for the wolf . However, from a species conservation biology perspective, this approach raises serious concerns — particularly when natural mortality and disease outbreaks within the population are taken into account.

Reproduction and Natural Mortality

A typical wolf pack produces around 4–6 pups per year. Even under natural conditions, only approximately 30–50% survive their first year of life. Causes of death include disease, accidents, food shortages, and intraspecific competition.

However, if two thirds of the pups are deliberately shot, at best 1–2 animals remain, of which a considerable proportion will additionally die due to natural factors. This means that many packs no longer achieve any reproductive growth at all.

Additional Threat from Disease

The situation becomes even more precarious when epizootics such as canine distemper (CDV) or sarcoptic mange occur — diseases that are regularly detected in wild animal populations in Switzerland. These conditions are particularly dangerous for young animals and social groups such as wolf packs:

• Distemper can cause mortality rates of over 80% in pups.
• Mange leads to physical debilitation, secondary infections, and the social disintegration of packs.
• Both diseases are highly contagious and spread rapidly across pack boundaries.

When these factors act in addition to regulation, sometimes no offspring at all survive per pack — which can lead to a collapse of the population in the medium term.

Scientific Assessment

According to internationally recognised studies (e.g. Chapron et al., 2015, Science) an annual removal of more than 30–40% of a wolf or large carnivore population is considered unsustainable. The IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) also warns that large-scale interventions in socially structured animal species can lead to reproductive disorders, behavioral changes, and population collapse.

Further studies confirm:

• Boitani & Mech (2010) emphasize that stable pack structures are crucial for the survival of the species. When young animals or parent animals are shot, many wolves lose the ability to hunt naturally, which in turn exacerbates livestock conflicts.
• A study by Treves et al. (2016) even shows that intensive hunting does not increase acceptance of the species, but rather entrenches conflicts within the population.

Federal Councillor Albert Rösti's Wolf Policy: An Ecological Blind Flight!

The planned 66% quota cannot be justified from a species conservation perspective if natural losses and disease risks are not factored in at the same time. It risks the permanent destabilization of an animal species that is protected not by coincidence, but because of its ecological value.

Instead of focusing purely on numerical reduction, a long-term, scientifically grounded wolf management approach would be necessary, one that:

• promotes the preservation of functioning pack structures,
• prioritizes non-reproductive interventions (e.g. deterrence, protective measures),
• and relies on monitoring, prevention, and local acceptance.

The scientifically documented risks and consequences of this so-called “proactive regulation” clearly refute the oft-repeated claim that the goal is not eradication, but merely controlled population management — comparable to other wildlife species. From a scientific perspective, this position is untenable. (Cf. Population Viability Analysis for the Wolf Species – BfN-Schriften / 715 – 2024)

Given that decision-makers in politics and administration can be assumed to be familiar with the relevant studies, a suspicion arises: the goal of this strategy is not regulation, but the deliberate rollback or even re-extermination of wolves in Switzerland.

Sources:

• Chapron, G. et al. (2015): Recovery of large carnivores in Europe's modern human-dominated landscapes. Science, 346(6216), 1517–1519.
• Boitani, L., & Mech, L.D. (2010): Wolves: Behavior, Ecology, and Conservation. University of Chicago Press.
• Treves, A., Krofel, M., & McManus, J. (2016): Predator control should not be a shot in the dark. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 14(7), 380–388.
• IUCN Guidelines for Reintroductions and Other Conservation Translocations (2013).
• KORA (Coordinated Research Projects for the Conservation and Management of Carnivores, Switzerland): Wolf Monitoring Reports 2023/24.
• Population Viability Analysis for the Wolf Species – ISBN 978-3-89624-477-2
• https://bfn.bsz-bw.de/…/docId/1899/file/Schrift715.pdf

Dossier: Wolf Switzerland: Facts, Politics and the Limits of Hunting